Karaköprü Belediyespor 2–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

Y. Bakkal 87'

M. Simdi 12' (OG)

A. Dogancan 45'

9/16/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFaruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor67%

×Draw19%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karaköprü BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchBitlis Özgüzelderespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.92

Karaköprü Belediyespor

2.25

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

0.92

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

2.50

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

1.00

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.83

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw

86%

Karaköprü Belediyespor or Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

81%

Draw or Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

33%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

44%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

89%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

65%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

39%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 1+ goals

60%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 2+ goals

23%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

83%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 2.50 + Bitlis Özgüzelderespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor attack 1.00 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

67%

level

19%

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor scores more

14%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. SimdiOwn goal

45'

A. Dogancan

87'

Y. Bakkal

Karaköprü

Bitlis

Manager: Ahmet Yavuz

Manager: S. Özdaş