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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs 12 Bingölspor — League #553 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 4
12 Bingölspor
12 Bingölspor
H. Kus 35'
Y. Alemdar 32'
Y. Saydam 53'
B. Nizam 48', 11'
M. Kartal 31'
B. Karsli 30'
O. Sahin 25'
1/11/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 16Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor35%
×Draw23%
12 Bingölspor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.55
12 Bingölspor
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.60
12 Bingölspor
2.25

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.13
12 Bingölspor
1.50

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
12 Bingölspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

12 Bingölspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
59%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or 12 Bingölspor
77%
Draw or 12 Bingölspor
65%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
17%
12 Bingölspor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
79%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
46%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
20%
12 Bingölspor 1+ goals
82%
12 Bingölspor 2+ goals
50%
12 Bingölspor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
46%
12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

12 Bingölspor away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + 12 Bingölspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

12 Bingölspor attack 2.25 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
35%
level
23%
12 Bingölspor scores more
41%

12 Bingölspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "12 Bingölspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
B. Nizam
25'
O. Sahin↳ H. Sevinc
30'
B. Karsli↳ M. R. Sahingoz
31'
M. Kartal↳ H. Sevinc
32'
Y. Alemdar↳ F. Sari
35'
H. Kus↳ H. Peksen
42'
M. R. SahingozMissed penalty
48'
B. Nizam↳ O. Sahin
53'
Y. Saydam↳ M. Golbasi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaköprü Belediyespor vs 12 Bingölspor

12 Bingölspor beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 6-2 in League #553 on January 11, 2026.

Goals: B. Nizam (11', 48'), O. Sahin (25'), B. Karsli (30'), M. Kartal (31'), Y. Alemdar (32'), H. Kus (35'), Y. Saydam (53').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.