Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 2–2 Antalyaspor

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Antalyaspor

9/27/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBeyçayırı Şehit Vefa Karakurdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK47%

×Draw23%

Antalyaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karadeniz Ereğli BSKExpected goals in this matchAntalyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.37

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

1.79

Antalyaspor

1.37

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.07

1.67

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

2.00

Antalyaspor

1.07

allows per match

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK

1.67

Antalyaspor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK+0.00on par

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK ↓

Antalyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK or draw

70%

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK or Antalyaspor

77%

Draw or Antalyaspor

53%

Winning margin

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK wins by 2+

26%

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 1+ goals

83%

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 2+ goals

53%

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 3+ goals

26%

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

75%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

40%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (draw refunded)

62%

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK attack 2.00 + Antalyaspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Antalyaspor attack 1.07 + Karadeniz Ereğli BSK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK scores more

47%

level

23%

Antalyaspor scores more

30%

Karadeniz Ereğli BSK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karadeniz Ereğli BSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff