Karacabey Belediyespor 2–0 Ümraniyespor

Karacabey Belediyespor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ümraniyespor

9/24/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMustafa Fehmi Gerçeker Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Karacabey Belediyespor47%

×Draw24%

Ümraniyespor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karacabey BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.30

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.69

Ümraniyespor

1.30

Karacabey Belediyespor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

0.90

1.71

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.57

Ümraniyespor

0.90

allows per match

Karacabey Belediyespor

1.71

Ümraniyespor

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karacabey Belediyespor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karacabey Belediyespor or draw

70%

Karacabey Belediyespor or Ümraniyespor

76%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

53%

Winning margin

Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+

25%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals

82%

Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals

50%

Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals

24%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

73%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

37%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)

61%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karacabey Belediyespor at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.57 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ümraniyespor attack 0.90 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karacabey Belediyespor scores more

47%

level

24%

Ümraniyespor scores more

30%

Karacabey Belediyespor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karacabey Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff