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Karacabey Belediyespor vs Şanlıurfaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karacabey Belediyespor
Karacabey Belediyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMustafa Fehmi Gerçeker Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Karacabey Belediyespor45%
×Draw22%
Şanlıurfaspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karacabey Belediyespor
1.89
Şanlıurfaspor
1.60

Karacabey Belediyespor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Karacabey Belediyespor
1.57
Şanlıurfaspor
1.50

allows per match

Karacabey Belediyespor
1.71
Şanlıurfaspor
2.20

finishing

Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par
Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karacabey Belediyespor ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Karacabey Belediyespor or draw
67%
Karacabey Belediyespor or Şanlıurfaspor
78%
Draw or Şanlıurfaspor
55%

Winning margin

Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+
25%
Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals
85%
Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals
56%
Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals
29%
Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
80%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
47%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)
58%
Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karacabey Belediyespor at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.57 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.50 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karacabey Belediyespor scores more
45%
level
22%
Şanlıurfaspor scores more
33%

Karacabey Belediyespor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karacabey Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Karacabey Belediyespor 1–2 Şanlıurfaspor

Şanlıurfaspor beat Karacabey Belediyespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Mustafa Fehmi Gerçeker Stadyumu in Karacabey.