Kaposvar 5–3 Érdi VSE: Result & Stats

Kaposvar

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Érdi VSE

5/26/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 30Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Kaposvar47%

×Draw24%

Érdi VSE30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaposvarExpected goals in this matchÉrdi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.31

Kaposvar

1.70

Érdi VSE

1.31

Kaposvar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 96 away

1.83

creates per match

1.40

1.23

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kaposvar

1.83

Érdi VSE

1.40

allows per match

Kaposvar

1.23

Érdi VSE

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Érdi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw

70%

Kaposvar or Érdi VSE

76%

Draw or Érdi VSE

53%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+

25%

Érdi VSE wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals

82%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

51%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

24%

Érdi VSE 1+ goals

73%

Érdi VSE 2+ goals

38%

Érdi VSE 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

61%

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaposvar scores more

47%

level

24%

Érdi VSE scores more

30%

Kaposvar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff