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Kaposvar vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
3 – 0
Andráshida
Andráshida
9/26/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 9Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaposvar81%
×Draw12%
Andráshida8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
3.23
Andráshida
0.93

Kaposvar creates 247% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.83
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.23
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
92%
Kaposvar or Andráshida
88%
Draw or Andráshida
19%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
62%
Andráshida wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
96%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
82%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
61%
Andráshida 1+ goals
61%
Andráshida 2+ goals
24%
Andráshida 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
91%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.23

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Kaposvar scores more
81%
level
12%
Andráshida scores more
8%

Kaposvar at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaposvar vs Andráshida

Kaposvar beat Andráshida 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Rákóczi Stadion in Kaposvár.