Rodange 91 1–3 Blue Boys Muhlenbach: Result & Stats

Rodange 91

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

8/18/2019

National Division · Round 3Stade Joseph Philippart (Rodange)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rodange 9148%

×Draw22%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodange 91Expected goals in this matchBlue Boys Muhlenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.44

Rodange 91

1.90

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.44

Rodange 91 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

1.13

1.76

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Rodange 91

1.04

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.13

allows per match

Rodange 91

1.76

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodange 91+0.00on par

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodange 91 ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rodange 91 or draw

71%

Rodange 91 or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

78%

Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach

52%

Winning margin

Rodange 91 wins by 2+

27%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodange 91 1+ goals

85%

Rodange 91 2+ goals

56%

Rodange 91 3+ goals

29%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals

76%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals

42%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)

62%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodange 91 at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodange 91 attack 1.04 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.13 + Rodange 91 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rodange 91 scores more

48%

level

22%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more

29%

Rodange 91 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rodange 91 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff