Kapaz 1–3 Neftchi Baku: Result & Stats

Kapaz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Neftchi Baku

2/15/2026

Premyer Liqa · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kapaz26%

×Draw26%

Neftchi Baku48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KapazExpected goals in this matchNeftchi Baku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.50

Kapaz

1.04

Neftchi Baku

1.50

Neftchi Baku creates 44% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 108 away

0.99

creates per match

1.38

1.62

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Kapaz

0.99

Neftchi Baku

1.38

allows per match

Kapaz

1.62

Neftchi Baku

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kapaz+0.00on par

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kapaz ↓

Neftchi Baku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kapaz or draw

52%

Kapaz or Neftchi Baku

74%

Draw or Neftchi Baku

74%

Winning margin

Kapaz wins by 2+

10%

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kapaz 1+ goals

65%

Kapaz 2+ goals

28%

Kapaz 3+ goals

9%

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals

78%

Neftchi Baku 2+ goals

44%

Neftchi Baku 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kapaz (draw refunded)

35%

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kapaz at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kapaz attack 0.99 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Kapaz defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kapaz scores more

26%

level

26%

Neftchi Baku scores more

48%

Neftchi Baku at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff