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KaPa Kajaani vs Tervarit-j JuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

KaPa Kajaani
KaPa Kajaani
FT
0 – 2
Tervarit-j JuPa
Tervarit-j JuPa
4/10/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KaPa Kajaani32%
×Draw21%
Tervarit-j JuPa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaPa Kajaani
1.72
Tervarit-j JuPa
2.09

Tervarit-j JuPa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

KaPa Kajaani
2.43
Tervarit-j JuPa
3.75

allows per match

KaPa Kajaani
0.43
Tervarit-j JuPa
1.00

finishing

KaPa Kajaani+0.00on par
Tervarit-j JuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaPa Kajaani ↓

Tervarit-j JuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

KaPa Kajaani or draw
53%
KaPa Kajaani or Tervarit-j JuPa
79%
Draw or Tervarit-j JuPa
68%

Winning margin

KaPa Kajaani wins by 2+
16%
Tervarit-j JuPa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

KaPa Kajaani 1+ goals
82%
KaPa Kajaani 2+ goals
51%
KaPa Kajaani 3+ goals
25%
Tervarit-j JuPa 1+ goals
88%
Tervarit-j JuPa 2+ goals
62%
Tervarit-j JuPa 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

KaPa Kajaani (draw refunded)
41%
Tervarit-j JuPa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaPa Kajaani at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Tervarit-j JuPa away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaPa Kajaani attack 2.43 + Tervarit-j JuPa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tervarit-j JuPa attack 3.75 + KaPa Kajaani defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KaPa Kajaani scores more
32%
level
21%
Tervarit-j JuPa scores more
47%

Tervarit-j JuPa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tervarit-j JuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KaPa Kajaani 0–2 Tervarit-j JuPa

Tervarit-j JuPa beat KaPa Kajaani 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kajaanin Pallohalli in Kajaani.