KaPa Kajaani 4–0 RPS Lions: Result & Stats

KaPa Kajaani

4 – 0

RPS Lions

3/26/2022

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundKajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KaPa Kajaani61%

×Draw21%

RPS Lions18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaPa KajaaniExpected goals in this matchRPS Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.96

KaPa Kajaani

1.97

RPS Lions

0.96

KaPa Kajaani creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.43

creates per match

1.50

0.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

KaPa Kajaani

2.43

RPS Lions

1.50

allows per match

KaPa Kajaani

0.43

RPS Lions

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KaPa Kajaani+0.00on par

RPS Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaPa Kajaani ↓

RPS Lions →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KaPa Kajaani or draw

82%

KaPa Kajaani or RPS Lions

79%

Draw or RPS Lions

39%

Winning margin

KaPa Kajaani wins by 2+

36%

RPS Lions wins by 2+

Team goals

KaPa Kajaani 1+ goals

86%

KaPa Kajaani 2+ goals

58%

KaPa Kajaani 3+ goals

31%

RPS Lions 1+ goals

62%

RPS Lions 2+ goals

25%

RPS Lions 3+ goals

Draw no bet

KaPa Kajaani (draw refunded)

77%

RPS Lions (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KaPa Kajaani at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

RPS Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KaPa Kajaani attack 2.43 + RPS Lions defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

RPS Lions attack 1.50 + KaPa Kajaani defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

KaPa Kajaani scores more

61%

level

21%

RPS Lions scores more

18%

KaPa Kajaani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "KaPa Kajaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff