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KaPa Kajaani vs PonPa — Suomen Cup 2018

KaPa Kajaani
KaPa Kajaani
FT
3 – 0
PonPa
PonPa
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KaPa Kajaani45%
×Draw20%
PonPa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaPa Kajaani
2.32
PonPa
2.02

KaPa Kajaani creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

KaPa Kajaani
2.43
PonPa
3.60

allows per match

KaPa Kajaani
0.43
PonPa
2.20

finishing

KaPa Kajaani+0.00on par
PonPa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaPa Kajaani ↓

PonPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

KaPa Kajaani or draw
65%
KaPa Kajaani or PonPa
80%
Draw or PonPa
55%

Winning margin

KaPa Kajaani wins by 2+
27%
PonPa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

KaPa Kajaani 1+ goals
90%
KaPa Kajaani 2+ goals
67%
KaPa Kajaani 3+ goals
40%
PonPa 1+ goals
87%
PonPa 2+ goals
60%
PonPa 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

KaPa Kajaani (draw refunded)
57%
PonPa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaPa Kajaani at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

PonPa away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaPa Kajaani attack 2.43 + PonPa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.32

PonPa attack 3.60 + KaPa Kajaani defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KaPa Kajaani scores more
45%
level
20%
PonPa scores more
35%

KaPa Kajaani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KaPa Kajaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KaPa Kajaani 3–0 PonPa

KaPa Kajaani beat PonPa 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kajaanin Pallohalli in Kajaani.