Kansas City W 3–0 Washington Spirit W

Kansas City W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Washington Spirit W

9/21/2024

NWSL Women · Round 15CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansas City W45%

×Draw26%

Washington Spirit W30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Kansas City W

1.50

Washington Spirit W

1.17

Kansas City W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 84 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kansas City W

1.82

Washington Spirit W

1.27

allows per match

Kansas City W

1.06

Washington Spirit W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

70%

Kansas City W or Washington Spirit W

74%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

55%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

22%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

78%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

44%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

19%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

69%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

33%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

60%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Washington Spirit W attack 1.27 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kansas City W scores more

45%

level

26%

Washington Spirit W scores more

30%

Kansas City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff