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Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
Preview
22:30
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
8/22/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageCPKC Stadium
Big match
63%
Kansas City W
model favours
63%21%16%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kansas City W63%
×Draw21%
Seattle Reign FC W16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.99
Seattle Reign FC W
0.89

Kansas City W creates 124% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
2.33
Seattle Reign FC W
1.26

allows per match

Kansas City W
0.52
Seattle Reign FC W
1.65

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
84%
Kansas City W or Seattle Reign FC W
79%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
37%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
38%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
86%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
59%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
32%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
59%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
22%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
80%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.52 · 21 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 2.33 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Kansas City W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kansas City W scores more
63%
level
21%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
16%

Kansas City W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWLWW
W
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansas City W vs Seattle Reign FC W — Match Preview

Kansas City W face Seattle Reign FC W on August 22, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kansas City W host Seattle Reign FC W at CPKC Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.