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Kansas City W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2026

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
Preview
00:00
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
7/30/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageCPKC Stadium
Big match
54%
Kansas City W
model favours
54%23%22%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kansas City W54%
×Draw23%
Racing Louisville W22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.77
Racing Louisville W
1.04

Kansas City W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
1.82
Racing Louisville W
1.03

allows per match

Kansas City W
1.06
Racing Louisville W
1.73

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
78%
Kansas City W or Racing Louisville W
77%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
46%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
30%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
83%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
53%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
26%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
65%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
28%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
71%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kansas City W scores more
54%
level
23%
Racing Louisville W scores more
22%

Kansas City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Kansas City W play Defensively solid, Racing Louisville W Direct / counter-attacking
  • Kansas City W sit 6, Racing Louisville W 16 in the table
  • Kansas City W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Racing Louisville W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kansas City W
Defensively solid
Racing Louisville W
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession44%
76%Pass accuracy74%
13.3Shots13.0
1.60xGBiggest gap1.80
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kansas City WRacing Louisville W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Kansas City W
1
Draws
4
Racing Louisville W
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 40%
2–04–22–03–33–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DLWLW
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansas City W face Racing Louisville W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Kansas City W hosting Racing Louisville W. Match starts July 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kansas City W host Racing Louisville W at CPKC Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.