Kansas City W 0–0 Orlando Pride W: Result & Stats

Kansas City W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orlando Pride W

8/16/2025

NWSL Women · Round 16CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansas City W51%

×Draw24%

Orlando Pride W24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pride W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.08

Kansas City W

1.68

Orlando Pride W

1.08

Kansas City W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 82 away

1.82

creates per match

1.09

1.06

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Kansas City W

1.82

Orlando Pride W

1.09

allows per match

Kansas City W

1.06

Orlando Pride W

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Orlando Pride W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

76%

Kansas City W or Orlando Pride W

76%

Draw or Orlando Pride W

49%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

28%

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

81%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

50%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

24%

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

66%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

29%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

68%

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.54 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kansas City W scores more

51%

level

24%

Orlando Pride W scores more

24%

Kansas City W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff