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Kansanshi Dynamos vs Zanaco — Super League 2019

Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zanaco
Zanaco
4/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos41%
×Draw32%
Zanaco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansanshi Dynamos
1.04
Zanaco
0.76

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 111 away

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.94
Zanaco
0.85

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.66
Zanaco
1.14

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par
Zanaco+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Zanaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw
74%
Kansanshi Dynamos or Zanaco
68%
Draw or Zanaco
59%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
16%
Zanaco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
65%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
28%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
9%
Zanaco 1+ goals
53%
Zanaco 2+ goals
18%
Zanaco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
61%
Zanaco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Zanaco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.14 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Zanaco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Zanaco attack 0.85 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
41%
level
32%
Zanaco scores more
26%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kansanshi Dynamos vs Zanaco

Kansanshi Dynamos beat Zanaco 2-1 in Super League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.