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Kansanshi Dynamos vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
11/26/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Nchanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos36%
×Draw34%
Red Arrows30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.92
Red Arrows
0.82

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 111 away

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.94
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.66
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw
70%
Kansanshi Dynamos or Red Arrows
66%
Draw or Red Arrows
64%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
13%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
60%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
23%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
7%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
56%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
20%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
54%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
36%
level
34%
Red Arrows scores more
30%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kansanshi Dynamos 2–1 Red Arrows

Kansanshi Dynamos beat Red Arrows 2-1 in Super League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Nchanga Stadium in Chingola.