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Kansanshi Dynamos vs NAPSA Stars — Super League 2019

Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
4/1/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos42%
×Draw33%
NAPSA Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansanshi Dynamos
1.01
NAPSA Stars
0.69

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 46% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.94
NAPSA Stars
0.71

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.66
NAPSA Stars
1.08

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par
NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

NAPSA Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw
76%
Kansanshi Dynamos or NAPSA Stars
67%
Draw or NAPSA Stars
58%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
17%
NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
64%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
27%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
8%
NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
50%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
15%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
63%
NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
42%
level
33%
NAPSA Stars scores more
24%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kansanshi Dynamos 3–2 NAPSA Stars

Kansanshi Dynamos beat NAPSA Stars 3-2 in Super League on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.