Kansanshi Dynamos 2–0 Mufulira Wanderers

Kansanshi Dynamos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mufulira Wanderers

3/7/2026

Super League · Round 23Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos47%

×Draw33%

Mufulira Wanderers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansanshi DynamosExpected goals in this matchMufulira Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.59

Kansanshi Dynamos

1.07

Mufulira Wanderers

0.59

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 81% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 60 away

0.94

creates per match

0.52

0.66

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.94

Mufulira Wanderers

0.52

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.66

Mufulira Wanderers

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw

80%

Kansanshi Dynamos or Mufulira Wanderers

67%

Draw or Mufulira Wanderers

53%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+

19%

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals

66%

Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals

29%

Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals

9%

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

45%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

12%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)

70%

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more

47%

level

33%

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

20%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff