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Kansanshi Dynamos vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
4/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos40%
×Draw32%
Forest Rangers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansanshi Dynamos
1.06
Forest Rangers
0.83

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 28% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.94
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.66
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw
72%
Kansanshi Dynamos or Forest Rangers
68%
Draw or Forest Rangers
60%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
16%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
65%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
29%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
9%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
56%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
20%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
59%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
40%
level
32%
Forest Rangers scores more
28%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kansanshi Dynamos 1–2 Forest Rangers

Forest Rangers beat Kansanshi Dynamos 2-1 in Super League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.