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Kano Pillars vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
8/31/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 2Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Kano Pillars63%
×Draw26%
Wikki Tourist12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.51
Wikki Tourist
0.48

Kano Pillars creates 215% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
88%
Kano Pillars or Wikki Tourist
74%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
37%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
34%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
78%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
44%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
19%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
38%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
8%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
84%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
63%
level
26%
Wikki Tourist scores more
12%

Kano Pillars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kano Pillars 1–1 Wikki Tourist

Kano Pillars and Wikki Tourist drew 1-1 in NPFL on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.