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Kano Pillars vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
10/6/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 5Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Kano Pillars63%
×Draw26%
Sunshine Stars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.49
Sunshine Stars
0.46

Kano Pillars creates 224% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
89%
Kano Pillars or Sunshine Stars
74%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
37%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
34%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
77%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
44%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
19%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
37%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
8%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
85%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
63%
level
26%
Sunshine Stars scores more
11%

Kano Pillars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kano Pillars vs Sunshine Stars

Kano Pillars beat Sunshine Stars 2-0 in NPFL on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina.