Kano Pillars 2–0 Jigawa Golden Stars

Kano Pillars

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jigawa Golden Stars

2/3/2021

NPFL · Round 8Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kano Pillars68%

×Draw22%

Jigawa Golden Stars10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kano PillarsExpected goals in this matchJigawa Golden Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.49

Kano Pillars

1.75

Jigawa Golden Stars

0.49

Kano Pillars creates 257% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

1.54

creates per match

0.55

0.44

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Kano Pillars

1.54

Jigawa Golden Stars

0.55

allows per match

Kano Pillars

0.44

Jigawa Golden Stars

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw

90%

Kano Pillars or Jigawa Golden Stars

78%

Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars

32%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+

40%

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals

83%

Kano Pillars 2+ goals

52%

Kano Pillars 3+ goals

25%

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals

39%

Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals

9%

Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)

87%

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kano Pillars scores more

68%

level

22%

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more

10%

Kano Pillars at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff