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Kano Pillars vs Ikorodu City — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
9/8/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 1Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kano Pillars61%
×Draw26%
Ikorodu City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.52
Ikorodu City
0.56

Kano Pillars creates 171% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Ikorodu City
0.68

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Ikorodu City
1.50

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Ikorodu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
86%
Kano Pillars or Ikorodu City
74%
Draw or Ikorodu City
39%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
32%
Ikorodu City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
78%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
45%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
20%
Ikorodu City 1+ goals
43%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
11%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
82%
Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
61%
level
26%
Ikorodu City scores more
14%

Kano Pillars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kano Pillars 3–0 Ikorodu City

Kano Pillars beat Ikorodu City 3-0 in NPFL on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina.