Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kano Pillars vs Ifeanyi Uba — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
1 – 0
Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
12/22/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 10Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kano Pillars66%
×Draw23%
Ifeanyi Uba11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.66
Ifeanyi Uba
0.51

Kano Pillars creates 225% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Ifeanyi Uba
0.57

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Ifeanyi Uba
1.78

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
89%
Kano Pillars or Ifeanyi Uba
77%
Draw or Ifeanyi Uba
34%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
37%
Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
81%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
49%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
23%
Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
40%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
9%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
86%
Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
66%
level
23%
Ifeanyi Uba scores more
11%

Kano Pillars at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kano Pillars 1–0 Ifeanyi Uba

Kano Pillars beat Ifeanyi Uba 1-0 in NPFL on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.