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Kano Pillars vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
3/13/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 25Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Kano Pillars55%
×Draw29%
Enugu Rangers16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.33
Enugu Rangers
0.57

Kano Pillars creates 133% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 130 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
84%
Kano Pillars or Enugu Rangers
71%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
45%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
27%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
74%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
38%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
43%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
11%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
78%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
55%
level
29%
Enugu Rangers scores more
16%

Kano Pillars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kano Pillars 1–1 Enugu Rangers

Kano Pillars and Enugu Rangers drew 1-1 in NPFL on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.