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Kano Pillars vs Doma United — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Doma United
Doma United
5/26/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 33Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kano Pillars66%
×Draw24%
Doma United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.61
Doma United
0.45

Kano Pillars creates 258% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Doma United
0.46

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Doma United
1.68

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Doma United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
90%
Kano Pillars or Doma United
76%
Draw or Doma United
34%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
37%
Doma United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
80%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
48%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
22%
Doma United 1+ goals
36%
Doma United 2+ goals
8%
Doma United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
87%
Doma United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Doma United attack 0.46 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
66%
level
24%
Doma United scores more
10%

Kano Pillars at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kano Pillars vs Doma United

Kano Pillars beat Doma United 3-1 in NPFL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.