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Kangemi All Stars vs Kenya Police — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
2 – 0
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
8/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kangemi All Stars42%
×Draw29%
Kenya Police29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.20
Kenya Police
0.94

Kangemi All Stars creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.33
Kenya Police
0.94

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
0.93
Kenya Police
1.06

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
71%
Kangemi All Stars or Kenya Police
71%
Draw or Kenya Police
58%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
18%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
70%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
34%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
12%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
61%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
24%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
59%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.33 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Kangemi All Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
42%
level
29%
Kenya Police scores more
29%

Kangemi All Stars at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kangemi All Stars vs Kenya Police

Kangemi All Stars beat Kenya Police 2-0 in Super League on August 1, 2018.