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Kangemi All Stars vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
2 – 1
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
3/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kangemi All Stars54%
×Draw26%
Green Commandos21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.52
Green Commandos
0.83

Kangemi All Stars creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.36
Green Commandos
0.80

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
0.86
Green Commandos
1.67

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
79%
Kangemi All Stars or Green Commandos
74%
Draw or Green Commandos
46%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
28%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
78%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
45%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
20%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
56%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
20%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
72%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.36 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Green Commandos attack 0.80 + Kangemi All Stars defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
54%
level
26%
Green Commandos scores more
21%

Kangemi All Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kangemi All Stars vs Green Commandos

Kangemi All Stars beat Green Commandos 2-1 in Super League on March 25, 2018.