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Kangemi All Stars vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
2 – 0
GFE 105
GFE 105
5/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kangemi All Stars58%
×Draw25%
GFE 10517%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.60
GFE 105
0.72

Kangemi All Stars creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.27
GFE 105
0.50

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
0.93
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
83%
Kangemi All Stars or GFE 105
75%
Draw or GFE 105
42%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
32%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
80%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
47%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
22%
GFE 105 1+ goals
51%
GFE 105 2+ goals
16%
GFE 105 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
78%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.27 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

GFE 105 attack 0.50 + Kangemi All Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
58%
level
25%
GFE 105 scores more
17%

Kangemi All Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kangemi All Stars 2–0 GFE 105

Kangemi All Stars beat GFE 105 2-0 in Super League on May 25, 2018.