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Kangemi All Stars vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
2 – 2
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
9/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kangemi All Stars38%
×Draw28%
FC Talanta33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.21
FC Talanta
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.25
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.00
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
67%
Kangemi All Stars or FC Talanta
72%
Draw or FC Talanta
62%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
16%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
70%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
34%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
12%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
67%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
30%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
53%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.25 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
38%
level
28%
FC Talanta scores more
33%

Kangemi All Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kangemi All Stars 2–2 FC Talanta

Kangemi All Stars and FC Talanta drew 2-2 in Super League on September 1, 2018.