Kanchanaburi 3–1 Samut Sakhon City: Result & Stats

Kanchanaburi

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Samut Sakhon City

5/8/2024

FA Cup · Semi-finalsDragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kanchanaburi72%

×Draw13%

Samut Sakhon City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanchanaburiExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

1.75

Kanchanaburi

3.81

Samut Sakhon City

1.75

Kanchanaburi creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

4.80

creates per match

2.50

1.00

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Kanchanaburi

4.80

Samut Sakhon City

2.50

allows per match

Kanchanaburi

1.00

Samut Sakhon City

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanchanaburi ↓

Samut Sakhon City →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

78%22%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Kanchanaburi or draw

86%

Kanchanaburi or Samut Sakhon City

87%

Draw or Samut Sakhon City

28%

Winning margin

Kanchanaburi wins by 2+

55%

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+

Team goals

Kanchanaburi 1+ goals

98%

Kanchanaburi 2+ goals

88%

Kanchanaburi 3+ goals

71%

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals

83%

Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals

52%

Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)

83%

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kanchanaburi at home — creates 4.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Samut Sakhon City away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kanchanaburi attack 4.80 + Samut Sakhon City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.81

Samut Sakhon City attack 2.50 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kanchanaburi scores more

72%

level

13%

Samut Sakhon City scores more

14%

Kanchanaburi at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kanchanaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff