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Kanchanaburi vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
1/14/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kanchanaburi58%
×Draw22%
Krabi FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanchanaburi
1.95
Krabi FC
1.07

Kanchanaburi creates 82% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kanchanaburi
1.69
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Kanchanaburi
1.20
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Kanchanaburi+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanchanaburi ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kanchanaburi or draw
80%
Kanchanaburi or Krabi FC
78%
Draw or Krabi FC
42%

Winning margin

Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
34%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
86%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
58%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
31%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
66%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
29%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
74%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanchanaburi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanchanaburi attack 1.69 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.95

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kanchanaburi scores more
58%
level
22%
Krabi FC scores more
20%

Kanchanaburi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kanchanaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanchanaburi vs Krabi FC

Kanchanaburi and Krabi FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.