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Kanchanaburi vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bangkok
Bangkok
12/8/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 15Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kanchanaburi49%
×Draw23%
Bangkok28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanchanaburi
1.81
Bangkok
1.31

Kanchanaburi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kanchanaburi
1.69
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Kanchanaburi
1.20
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Kanchanaburi+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanchanaburi ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kanchanaburi or draw
72%
Kanchanaburi or Bangkok
77%
Draw or Bangkok
51%

Winning margin

Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
27%
Bangkok wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
84%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
54%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
27%
Bangkok 1+ goals
73%
Bangkok 2+ goals
38%
Bangkok 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
64%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanchanaburi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanchanaburi attack 1.69 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kanchanaburi scores more
49%
level
23%
Bangkok scores more
28%

Kanchanaburi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kanchanaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kanchanaburi 2–3 Bangkok

Bangkok beat Kanchanaburi 3-2 in Thai League 2 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.