Kanazawa 0–3 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Shimizu S-pulse

9/17/2023

J2 League · Round 35Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kanazawa30%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.47

Kanazawa

1.16

Shimizu S-pulse

1.47

Shimizu S-pulse creates 27% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 43 away

1.16

creates per match

1.63

1.31

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.16

Shimizu S-pulse

1.63

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.31

Shimizu S-pulse

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

56%

Kanazawa or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

70%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

12%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

69%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

32%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

11%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

77%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

43%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

40%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kanazawa scores more

30%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

44%

Shimizu S-pulse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff