Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kanazawa vs Sagamihara — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagamihara
Sagamihara
3/28/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 5Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kanazawa40%
×Draw29%
Sagamihara30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.17
Sagamihara
0.97

Kanazawa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Sagamihara
0.62

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Sagamihara
1.19

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Sagamihara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Sagamihara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
70%
Kanazawa or Sagamihara
71%
Draw or Sagamihara
60%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
17%
Sagamihara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
69%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
11%
Sagamihara 1+ goals
62%
Sagamihara 2+ goals
25%
Sagamihara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
57%
Sagamihara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Sagamihara away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Sagamihara defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sagamihara attack 0.62 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kanazawa scores more
40%
level
29%
Sagamihara scores more
30%

Kanazawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 2–1 Sagamihara

Kanazawa beat Sagamihara 2-1 in J2 League on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Stadium in Kanazawa.