Kanazawa 1–1 Roasso Kumamoto: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Roasso Kumamoto

8/12/2023

J2 League · Round 30Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Kanazawa37%

×Draw26%

Roasso Kumamoto37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

Kanazawa

1.32

Roasso Kumamoto

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 104 away

1.16

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.16

Roasso Kumamoto

1.33

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.31

Roasso Kumamoto

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

63%

Kanazawa or Roasso Kumamoto

74%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

63%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

17%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

73%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

38%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

15%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

73%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

38%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

50%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kanazawa scores more

37%

level

26%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

37%

Kanazawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff