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Kanazawa vs Oita Trinita — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
11/4/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 41Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kanazawa37%
×Draw27%
Oita Trinita36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.27
Oita Trinita
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Oita Trinita
1.18

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Oita Trinita
1.37

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
64%
Kanazawa or Oita Trinita
73%
Draw or Oita Trinita
63%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
16%
Oita Trinita wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
72%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
36%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
14%
Oita Trinita 1+ goals
71%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
36%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
51%
Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Oita Trinita defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kanazawa scores more
37%
level
27%
Oita Trinita scores more
36%

Kanazawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 2–2 Oita Trinita

Kanazawa and Oita Trinita drew 2-2 in J2 League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Stadium in Kanazawa.