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Kanazawa vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
7/7/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa36%
×Draw27%
Mito Hollyhock37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.23
Mito Hollyhock
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 168 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
Mito Hollyhock
1.20

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
Mito Hollyhock
1.29

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
63%
Kanazawa or Mito Hollyhock
73%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
64%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
15%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
71%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
35%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
13%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
71%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
36%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
49%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kanazawa scores more
36%
level
27%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
37%

Mito Hollyhock at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanazawa vs Mito Hollyhock

Kanazawa and Mito Hollyhock drew 2-2 in J2 League on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).