Kanazawa 1–2 Kagoshima United: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Kagoshima United

8/31/2019

J2 League · Round 30Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Kanazawa48%

×Draw25%

Kagoshima United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchKagoshima United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Kanazawa

1.54

Kagoshima United

1.08

Kanazawa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 42 away

1.16

creates per match

0.86

1.31

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.16

Kagoshima United

0.86

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.31

Kagoshima United

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Kagoshima United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

73%

Kanazawa or Kagoshima United

75%

Draw or Kagoshima United

52%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

24%

Kagoshima United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

79%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

45%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

20%

Kagoshima United 1+ goals

66%

Kagoshima United 2+ goals

29%

Kagoshima United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

64%

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

Kagoshima United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + Kagoshima United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kagoshima United attack 0.86 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kanazawa scores more

48%

level

25%

Kagoshima United scores more

27%

Kanazawa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff