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Kanazawa vs JEF United Chiba — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
3/13/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 4Ishikawa Seibu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kanazawa34%
×Draw27%
JEF United Chiba38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.19
JEF United Chiba
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 166 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
JEF United Chiba
1.23

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
JEF United Chiba
1.21

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

JEF United Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
62%
Kanazawa or JEF United Chiba
73%
Draw or JEF United Chiba
66%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
14%
JEF United Chiba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%
JEF United Chiba 1+ goals
72%
JEF United Chiba 2+ goals
36%
JEF United Chiba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
47%
JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

JEF United Chiba attack 1.23 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kanazawa scores more
34%
level
27%
JEF United Chiba scores more
38%

JEF United Chiba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "JEF United Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 0–1 JEF United Chiba

JEF United Chiba beat Kanazawa 1-0 in J2 League on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Stadium in Kanazawa.