Kanazawa 1–2 Fukushima United: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fukushima United

K. Nishiya 69'

K. Shimizu 90+1'

H. Higuchi 4'

11/10/2024

League #100 · Round 36Kanazawa Go Go Curry Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kanazawa36%

×Draw25%

Fukushima United39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchFukushima United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.42

Kanazawa

1.35

Fukushima United

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

1.27

1.57

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.43

Fukushima United

1.27

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.57

Fukushima United

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Fukushima United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Fukushima United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

61%

Kanazawa or Fukushima United

75%

Draw or Fukushima United

64%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

16%

Fukushima United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

74%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

39%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

15%

Fukushima United 1+ goals

76%

Fukushima United 2+ goals

41%

Fukushima United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

48%

Fukushima United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Fukushima United away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.43 + Fukushima United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fukushima United attack 1.27 + Kanazawa defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kanazawa scores more

36%

level

25%

Fukushima United scores more

39%

Fukushima United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fukushima United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

13'

31'

37'

46'

62'

H. Otani← T. Ishihara

62'

K. Sugiura← Y. Taguchi

65'

N. Yamamoto

69'

K. Nishiya↳ H. Otani

73'

K. Yajima← H. Higuchi

73'

R. Mori← Y. Matsunagane

73'

H. Yoshinaga← T. Harigaya

84'

Marlyson← K. Nishiya

85'

K. Shimizu← K. Mori

85'

H. Omori← K. Jojo

90+4'

K. Yajima

90+1'

K. Shimizu↳ K. Yajima

Kanazawa

Fukushima

1

2

28

27

3

▼

Matsunaga

10

▼

Mori

17

▼

Harigaya

14

Ozeki

40

⚽

▼

Higuchi

7

Shiohama

20

▼

Jojo

31

Ueda

39

▼

38

2

4

14

▼

Ishihara

8

▼

Oyama

24

⚽

▼

Nishiya

15

Nishiya

6

Kajiura

71

▼

Taguchi

Manager: A. Ito

37'▲H. Hatao←▼H. Shoji

46'▲A. Kumagai←▼K. Oyama

62'▲H. Otani←▼T. Ishihara

62'▲K. Sugiura←▼Y. Taguchi

84'▲Marlyson←▼K. Nishiya

Kanazawa substitutes

3Hatao18Kumagai30Otani11Sugiura77Marlyson1Shirai16Mouri

Manager: S. Terada

73'▲K. Yajima←▼H. Higuchi

73'▲R. Mori←▼Y. Matsunagane

73'▲H. Yoshinaga←▼T. Harigaya

85'▲K. Shimizu←▼K. Mori

85'▲H. Omori←▼K. Jojo

Fukushima United substitutes

18Yajima15Mori8Yoshinaga19Shimizu5Omori9Sawakami22Yamamoto