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Kanazawa vs FC Gifu — J2 League 2018

Kanazawa
Kanazawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gifu
FC Gifu
9/30/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kanazawa45%
×Draw26%
FC Gifu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanazawa
1.43
FC Gifu
1.10

Kanazawa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kanazawa
1.16
FC Gifu
0.89

allows per match

Kanazawa
1.31
FC Gifu
1.70

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par
FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

FC Gifu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw
71%
Kanazawa or FC Gifu
74%
Draw or FC Gifu
55%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+
22%
FC Gifu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals
76%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
42%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
17%
FC Gifu 1+ goals
67%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
30%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)
61%
FC Gifu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.16 + FC Gifu defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Gifu attack 0.89 + Kanazawa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kanazawa scores more
45%
level
26%
FC Gifu scores more
29%

Kanazawa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kanazawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kanazawa 2–0 FC Gifu

Kanazawa beat FC Gifu 2-0 in J2 League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa).