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Kamza vs Luftetari Gjirokaster — Superliga 2018

Kamza
Kamza
FT
0 – 3
Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
5/17/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 34Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kamza38%
×Draw27%
Luftetari Gjirokaster35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamza
1.28
Luftetari Gjirokaster
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kamza
0.50
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.75

allows per match

Kamza
1.72
Luftetari Gjirokaster
2.06

finishing

Kamza+0.00on par
Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamza ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kamza or draw
65%
Kamza or Luftetari Gjirokaster
73%
Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster
62%

Winning margin

Kamza wins by 2+
17%
Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kamza 1+ goals
72%
Kamza 2+ goals
37%
Kamza 3+ goals
14%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
71%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
35%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kamza (draw refunded)
52%
Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamza at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamza attack 0.50 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Kamza defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kamza scores more
38%
level
27%
Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
35%

Kamza at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kamza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamza vs Luftetari Gjirokaster

Luftetari Gjirokaster beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on May 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kamza in Kamëz.