Kamuzu Barracks vs Mitundu Baptist

Kamuzu Barracks

Preview

12:30

Mitundu Baptist

10/17/2026

Super League · Round 17

56%

Kamuzu Barracks

model favours

56%29%15%

1–0

likely score

73%

under 2.5 goals

29%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks56%

×Draw29%

Mitundu Baptist15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamuzu BarracksExpected goals in this matchMitundu Baptist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.51

Kamuzu Barracks

1.29

Mitundu Baptist

0.51

Kamuzu Barracks creates 153% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 4 away

1.07

creates per match

0.25

0.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks

1.07

Mitundu Baptist

0.25

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks

0.77

Mitundu Baptist

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Mitundu Baptist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw

85%

Kamuzu Barracks or Mitundu Baptist

71%

Draw or Mitundu Baptist

44%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

27%

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

72%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

37%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

14%

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

40%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

9%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

79%

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

56%

level

29%

Mitundu Baptist scores more

15%

Kamuzu Barracks at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Barracks

LLLLL

Baptist

DWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff