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Kamuzu Barracks vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
8/10/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks51%
×Draw28%
Dedza Dynamos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.38
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

Kamuzu Barracks creates 77% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
79%
Kamuzu Barracks or Dedza Dynamos
72%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
49%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
25%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
75%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
40%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
16%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
54%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
18%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
71%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
51%
level
28%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
21%

Kamuzu Barracks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamuzu Barracks vs Dedza Dynamos

Kamuzu Barracks beat Dedza Dynamos 2-0 in Super League on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.