Dedza Dynamos 1–0 Kamuzu Barracks: Result & Stats

Dedza Dynamos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kamuzu Barracks

8/31/2025

Super League · Round 15Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos41%

×Draw31%

Kamuzu Barracks28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dedza DynamosExpected goals in this matchKamuzu Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.85

Dedza Dynamos

1.10

Kamuzu Barracks

0.85

Dedza Dynamos creates 29% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 81 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos

1.08

Kamuzu Barracks

1.00

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos

0.70

Kamuzu Barracks

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw

72%

Dedza Dynamos or Kamuzu Barracks

69%

Draw or Kamuzu Barracks

59%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

17%

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

67%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

30%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

10%

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

57%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

21%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

60%

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more

41%

level

31%

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

28%

Dedza Dynamos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff