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Kamuzu Barracks vs Creck — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Creck
Creck
12/7/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Champion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks43%
×Draw31%
Creck26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.12
Creck
0.81

Kamuzu Barracks creates 38% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Creck
0.86

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Creck
1.17

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Creck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Creck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
74%
Kamuzu Barracks or Creck
69%
Draw or Creck
57%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
18%
Creck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
67%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
31%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
10%
Creck 1+ goals
56%
Creck 2+ goals
19%
Creck 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
62%
Creck (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Creck away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Creck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Creck attack 0.86 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
43%
level
31%
Creck scores more
26%

Kamuzu Barracks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kamuzu Barracks 1–0 Creck

Kamuzu Barracks beat Creck 1-0 in Super League on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Champion Stadium in Mponela.