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Kamuzu Barracks vs Baka City — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Baka City
Baka City
8/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Aubrey Dimba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks75%
×Draw17%
Baka City9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
2.27
Baka City
0.62

Kamuzu Barracks creates 266% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Baka City
0.47

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Baka City
3.47

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Baka City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
91%
Kamuzu Barracks or Baka City
83%
Draw or Baka City
25%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
51%
Baka City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
90%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
66%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
39%
Baka City 1+ goals
46%
Baka City 2+ goals
13%
Baka City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
90%
Baka City (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.27

Baka City attack 0.47 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
75%
level
17%
Baka City scores more
9%

Kamuzu Barracks at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kamuzu Barracks 4–0 Baka City

Kamuzu Barracks beat Baka City 4-0 in Super League on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Aubrey Dimba Stadium in Kapiri.